A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
